Sports Betting

I have recently received some questions about sports betting and what I think about it. I will do my best to be as open and honest as I can with a topic that is pretty tough for me to write about for a number of reasons.

I will start right out with yes I do bet sports occasionally. I bet sports every year and I will bet on almost anything provided I like it and I have some knowledge that gives me an advantage. I bet sports to win money and for absolutely no other reason. I only bet when I feel I can get the best of the situation. Knowing I have to pay the vig makes me even more cautious in what I choose to bet. I have made a substantial amount of money sports betting in my lifetime. More importantly, I have been incredibly selective on what I bet and how much I bet.

I have been able to find good spots to put my money down and when the opportunity has presented itself I have been in a position to take advantage of it. My close friends have been around when I have won a couple large bets in the last year or two. They have seen the tickets before the event and often will jump on board with my play.  Luckily I have taken us to winners. My friends are never there when I do the work and study my materials and make my phone calls. I put quite a bit of effort in and generally work to find a reason I should not make the bet. When I finally determine that the line is just wrong I am forced to put some smart money down.

I am done betting professional football for this season and that means no bet on the game this weekend. I had a good year this year and ended up winning money for football. I do not study professional football and I never feel really strong on the games. I was however lucky enough in my lifetime to run into people who are in the know on different subjects.

My horse racing buddy for a number of years was a casino floor manager named Ron that loved to bet horses. Ron could really do the work when it came to the horses and I often traveled with Ron to go bet the horses or play poker. Ron was the first guy to take me to the world series of poker and he really spent a great deal of time teaching me poker and gambling in general. Ron really proved to me the value of information and showed me how to use the internet and the daily racing form to work up a sheet for the races. Keep in mind that we were using the internet for study sixteen years ago. Long before the general public got on board. Ron carried me to many a winning ticket. Sadly, Ron and I are no longer in contact and I have to say I miss that guy.

I had some friends that would love to remain anonymous that had some helpful information on college basketball for a number of seasons and they were kind enough to share the information and allow me to make a few dollars. The information was very good and would make a ton of money for many people. Unfortunately greed got in the way and the whole thing tumbled down. I will never know how close my friends were to the source and I really am glad that nobody I was friends with ended up in any trouble.

There are times when people like me can use simple database programs and find trends. There are legions of people that spend their lives doing just this type of work in the stock market. I have been fortunate enough to work with other smart people who have found these trends and brought them to my attention and allowed me to provide quality assurance on their work.   At least three times in the last 15 years we have discovered professional football trends that were strong enough to overcome the juice. Each time we were able to profit on the trends until the other side discovered that we were winning just a little too much to be considered lucky. We have been asked not to play and the sports books have even stopped accepting correlation bets. I am not saying we discovered correlation betting but we were able to recognize and verify it independently and make money off of our own system.

The current professional football system I am involved with on goes back eight years to shortly after I was married and my friends had come up with a power ranking system and wanted my help on some analysis. I worked for an entire season giving up about 20 hours a week during the NFL season to refine the ideas. I did not add much to the system other than to make it a little more conservative.

This year I will meet with my friends and we will divide up our winnings from the season and I will take home a few dollars. We had a good season this year going 21-9. Yes were able to make 30 total plays for the season. I am not at liberty to discuss which games were the strongest plays or even anything more than to say we were winners for the season. I am able to call and check to see if we are going to bet a game and I am free to bet the same game the same way as long as I do it at a legitimate Nevada casino and for no more than a grand. Most weeks I do not even call to see what game or games we are looking at and I never call to see how we are doing during the season. I just wait for our pro bowl party and we all get together and split up our take. Obviously this year we will not be having a pro bowl party.  Just a party.

I will be travelling down to San Bernardino and meeting with Old Benny and he will be sharing a little good will with me. Nothing life changing but it is always good to win. We have managed to win six out of the last seven years. Three years ago we did take a small loss and I attribute it to the variance catching up to us and just a relatively small number of plays that season.

My friend Old Benny is a guy that spends time on the computer and works hard during football season to keep our information just a little bit better than what everyone else has. Benny is not a tout and is actually pretty good friends with a couple of the big name touts in the industry.  Benny is as good or better than anyone in that industry and 1000 times more honest. I smile when I think about the amount of money people are willing to pay for information that is out there and all you have to do is go find it. At the moment I am happy with our small group and I feel like we may have many good seasons to look forward to. As far as I can tell there are only three people who are getting information from Benny. I really have no problem with Benny helping a few people out to make a couple extra bucks. I have long since made enough money to pay for that one miserable season I worked on the system. Benny has been doing all the work and I have been riding his coat tails just like I did with Ron.

People will always ask why or how did I ever find these people and why they would let me in on information that is so valuable. I have to ask you to read a story I wrote called Believe. I was the guy that figured out how to beat two separate casino games. I am respected for my mathematical mind and my willingness to offer sound judgment. I would like to think that I have lowered the variance on most of these systems. I also lower the profit but no system has any value if it is too wildly variant as it will bust you.

I would offer a suggested reading for anyone that may be interested in learning about sports betting. First read Fortunes Formula and second read Smart Money. If you like what you are reading you can now say you know somebody that was involved in sports betting from the early days.

Feel free to contact me if you have questions or comments.

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One Response to “Sports Betting”

  1. betting calculator Says:

    The Mrs won’t be too pleased if she sees what I’ve been reading on her laptop. She’s not too pleased with my interest in gambling.. LOL

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